madwren wrote: In before someone makes the "yes, but in a large enough sample size..." argument.
E1Q1G6 wrote: it's pointless to complain...a while back I pulled UH. I was pumped. About two days later I pulled another from a daily, then the next mythic I pulled was from a reward pack, UH again, finally my first pull in the mythic pack 1.0, you guessed it, UH. It's a great card, don't get me wrong, but that is consecutive mythics, same card, 4x. if I was pulling just from SOI mythics randomly, the chances of getting 4 of the same in a row is about 1:200,000, from just mythics.... To insult RNGESUS is pointless
E1Q1G6 wrote: E1Q1G6 wrote: it's pointless to complain...a while back I pulled UH. I was pumped. About two days later I pulled another from a daily, then the next mythic I pulled was from a reward pack, UH again, finally my first pull in the mythic pack 1.0, you guessed it, UH. It's a great card, don't get me wrong, but that is consecutive mythics, same card, 4x. if I was pulling just from SOI mythics randomly, the chances of getting 4 of the same in a row is about 1:200,000, from just mythics.... To insult RNGESUS is pointless, just bend over.... I posted and people said "prove that it's not random." I can't, but really?
E1Q1G6 wrote: it's pointless to complain...a while back I pulled UH. I was pumped. About two days later I pulled another from a daily, then the next mythic I pulled was from a reward pack, UH again, finally my first pull in the mythic pack 1.0, you guessed it, UH. It's a great card, don't get me wrong, but that is consecutive mythics, same card, 4x. if I was pulling just from SOI mythics randomly, the chances of getting 4 of the same in a row is about 1:200,000, from just mythics.... To insult RNGESUS is pointless, just bend over....
If this is random and equally weighted for all of the cards, my chance of a repeat should be 2 out of 15. 13.333% chance of pulling a duplicate. First pull... Sigarda. Okay, maybe just bad luck. Second pull... Sigarda.
Volrak wrote: E1Q1G6 wrote: E1Q1G6 wrote: it's pointless to complain...a while back I pulled UH. I was pumped. About two days later I pulled another from a daily, then the next mythic I pulled was from a reward pack, UH again, finally my first pull in the mythic pack 1.0, you guessed it, UH. It's a great card, don't get me wrong, but that is consecutive mythics, same card, 4x. if I was pulling just from SOI mythics randomly, the chances of getting 4 of the same in a row is about 1:200,000, from just mythics.... To insult RNGESUS is pointless, just bend over.... I posted and people said "prove that it's not random." I can't, but really? We also can't prove it's uniform random - not without a lot of data, anyway. But as far as I know, nobody's collecting data specific to the question of whether dupe pulls occur more often than you'd expect if drops were purely random. The odds depend how you frame the event.. but given four random SOI mythics you opened consecutively, the chance that they're all the same card (which I think is what you're quantifying there) is 1 in 9261: 1 (first card can be anything) x (1/21)^3 (each other card must be the same as first card)
obsidianpeanut wrote: Woundsealer wrote: If this is random and equally weighted for all of the cards, my chance of a repeat should be 2 out of 15. 13.333% chance of pulling a duplicate. First pull... Sigarda. Okay, maybe just bad luck. Second pull... Sigarda. I agree with the OP and I think his case shows that it isn't a true RNG. But your actual probability of drawing a dupe was 6.7%. See my probability post here: viewtopic.php?f=31&t=58594
Woundsealer wrote: If this is random and equally weighted for all of the cards, my chance of a repeat should be 2 out of 15. 13.333% chance of pulling a duplicate. First pull... Sigarda. Okay, maybe just bad luck. Second pull... Sigarda.