(Now 0 for 73) - Devs, is the system working as you intend?

billsrule7 · April 2016

So a few nights ago I opened 29 Legendary Tokens using Command Points that I had accumulated during the Season. I went 0 for 29 in opening a 5* cover.

This means that I am currently on a 0 for 70 streak of pulling a 5* cover. Think about that. 0 for 70. *UPDATE: now 0 for 73 as of 4/12

Yes, yes, the ISO is nice. But let’s be honest. Many players open LT’s because we want the 5* covers. No doubt that some of the 4* covers have been needed and helpful. But at the end of the day, I want 5* covers. I already have all of the useful 4*'s fully covered and leveled. I am so discouraged right now at the system that you have created to obtain 5* covers. (And yes, I am aware that this is a #firstworldMPQproblem.)

Devs, is this REALLY how you want the system to work? And yes, that is a serious question.

I have opened eight 5* covers since they have been introduced out of hundreds that I have opened. (I do have 11 5* covers, however 2 of them came from daily rewards, and another after I complained to CS when my streak reached 0 for 40).

Eight covers. I have an alliance mate who recently went 8 for 32. In 32 tokens he pulled as many 5* covers as I have pulled.

Here’s a quote that I’ve been thinking about in writing this:

"Every system is perfectly designed to get the results it gets."
~ Dr. Paul Batalden

Dr. Batalden would later say about his above quote:

“The observation invites personal reflection and awareness, the place where the lasting improvement of quality usually begins. By directing people’s attention to design, the words offer a powerful invitation to deeply consider how the present situation was created and invites its re-creation.”

Put simply: it is time for reflection on the system that players obtain 5* covers by. This system is often producing the following results:

Frustration
Despair
Discouragement
Players quitting the game

So here’s an easy solution: have Legendary Tokens begin at a 10% pull rate for 5*’s and after each unsuccessful 5* pull, the odds of opening a 5* increase by 3%. It resets then at 10% once you open a 5*. This would be a SIMPLE fix, and make a lot of players feel much better about the Legendary System. You could add this code into the game within 48 hours if you wanted to.

Lastly, Devs, when you are silent on this issue and on others (such as the serious lack of ISO), when we don’t hear from you here, when we don’t get video updates, you demonstrate that you lack empathy with / towards your players (customers). Silence is causing your players to have an increasing sense of frustration, both at you, and towards the game. We don’t know what you think about these issues, and therefore your silence is causing us to assume that you just don’t care, and that the systems in place are working exactly as you want them to.

We want this game to succeed. But we’re tired. Tired of the silence. So here we are, waiting. Waiting for you to acknowledge that we’re here, waiting for some empathy, waiting to hear that we have serious concerns, that you hear us, and want to engage with us.

IGN: Foster

jobob · April 2016

I for one seriously question whether the system is "random" at all, which is frustrating in and of itself. I have seen multiple times it be proven that over a large enough subset, there will be around 10% legendary draws, and people seem to say "Oh, well, there you go, must be random," which ignores the fact that evenness and randomness aren't the same. Just too many 0-fer or unbelievable streaks.

If I have a door prize and there are 10 winning tickets to give out to 100 guests, then 10% will win. I could give them all to my buddies, or put them all on the top of the stack and give them out to the first 10 people in the room... and 10% will still win. In neither case is it a "random" outcome.

mpqr7 · April 2016

I was also 0 for 70 recently. It was very very awful. Month after month of nothing. Felt very pointless. It would be great to know that at some point, there's a guarantee.

OneLastGambit · April 2016

jobob wrote:

I for one seriously question whether the system is "random" at all, which is frustrating in and of itself. I have seen multiple times it be proven that over a large enough subset, there will be around 10% legendary draws, and people seem to say "Oh, well, there you go, must be random," which ignores the fact that evenness and randomness aren't the same. Just too many 0-fer or unbelievable streaks.

If I have a door prize and there are 10 winning tickets to give out to 100 guests, then 10% will win. I could give them all to my buddies, or put them all on the top of the stack and give them out to the first 10 people in the room... and 10% will still win. In neither case is it a "random" outcome.

Evenness and randomness dont lend to one another. Randomness can be completely one sided

Coltsjustwin · April 2016

I have seen some "top" players post their results from LT pulls and they seem to be incredibly lucky by getting a near 25-33% 5* pull rate
Might have been just that day but damn...I don't hear anybody else getting that lucky.

HaywireII · April 2016

We need the math guys to come in here now. If you are 0 for 70 what percentile does that put you in when it's a 10% pull rate. And what is the matching percentile at the other end of the spectrum? 35 out of 70? 55 out of 70? I'm curious if there's one person out there pulling mostly 5*'s from legendary tokens and not complaining at all.

SkyElf · April 2016

I haven't been counting the number of 4* covers I get from Legendary tokens between each 5*, but I have noticed that my husband has a lot more 5* covers than I do, even though we are fairly close in the number of Legendary tokens we have opened.

JD Geek · April 2016

I am in the same boat. I have not had a five star in two?three? seasons. Just opened up 20 tokens at this seasons end. Thought maybe if I hoarded them it would help. Nope. Zero.

Pongie · April 2016

Coltsjustwin wrote:

I have seen some "top" players post their results from LT pulls and they seem to be incredibly lucky by getting a near 25-33% 5* pull rate
Might have been just that day but damn...I don't hear anybody else getting that lucky.

I have a theory about this. The vets and whales that open heaps of tokens immediately after a character release are close to, if not opening the majority of token pool. Eg they open 70 tokens, chances are its 70 out of 100 tokens being opening at the time. Therefore they get a more even distribution. For the rest who are opening 70 tokens over an extended period, this is just a fraction of how many tokens being opened. It could be in the thousands if not more. In this case the distribution is more random.

carrion_pigeons · April 2016

HaywireII wrote:

We need the math guys to come in here now. If you are 0 for 70 what percentile does that put you in when it's a 10% pull rate. And what is the matching percentile at the other end of the spectrum? 35 out of 70? 55 out of 70? I'm curious if there's one person out there pulling mostly 5*'s from legendary tokens and not complaining at all.

That's not a tough math problem. .9^70=.000626579

Or in other words about 1 in 1600. Not so unlikely to have a handful of cases like that if the sample size is large enough.

EDIT: Actually read the rest of the question. The answer is a little under 22 5* covers. I suspect that's not so far outside of an intuitively normal success rate that someone not thinking about it very hard would even blink.

Pants1000 · April 2016

I think it is working as intended, but that doesn't mean there isn't room for improvement.

I'm fine with the system as-is, and although I haven't kept track I'd guess I'm around 10%.

If it is going to change, I'd like to see a vault. That would basically do the same thing as the OP suggested, and might even increase revenue. That's how you get the devs to make changes.

How many people would pay for a vault reset if they need an OML yellow and it's not in their vault?

Dayv · April 2016

carrion pigeons wrote:

HaywireII wrote:

We need the math guys to come in here now. If you are 0 for 70 what percentile does that put you in when it's a 10% pull rate. And what is the matching percentile at the other end of the spectrum? 35 out of 70? 55 out of 70? I'm curious if there's one person out there pulling mostly 5*'s from legendary tokens and not complaining at all.

That's not a tough math problem. .9^70=.000626579

Or in other words about 1 in 1600. Not so unlikely to have a handful of cases like that if the sample size is large enough.

EDIT: Actually read the rest of the question. The answer is a little under 22 5* covers. I suspect that's not so far outside of an intuitively normal success rate that someone not thinking about it very hard would even blink.

Huh. I would have thought that if the OP drew 0 out of 70 (7 less than average) instead of the statistically average 7 out of 70, that the statistically similar draw rate would have been 7 more than average, or 14 tokens. Of course, that doesn't account for the fact that 0 out of 70 is a hard limit, while there are decreasingly small chances of drawing far more than 14 out of 70.

El Satanno · April 2016

Hello, I'm that alliance mate of Foster's that pulled 8 for 32 last season. If you have been paying attention here you might know that already. The sad thing is, I have at least one other alliance mate with equally horrible luck. A sad side effect of my lucky pulls is that I actually feel a little guilty celebrating when I get good covers like that. How messed up is that?

At any rate, the problems with Legendary tokens and the 5* tier are multiple. First, the rather obvious disparity between those on either end of the curve. Compounding that is the fact that unlike every other tier of character, we have but ONE avenue to obtain these 5* covers. Finally, the fact that those same characters are wildly overpowering magnifies the whole problem. Maybe if 5*'s were simply an improvement the same way 4* are over 3*, we might not have the scale of discontent seen here. Yet here we are. And it sucks. Even for the luckier guys like me.

jobob · April 2016

OneLastGambit wrote:

jobob wrote:

I for one seriously question whether the system is "random" at all, which is frustrating in and of itself. I have seen multiple times it be proven that over a large enough subset, there will be around 10% legendary draws, and people seem to say "Oh, well, there you go, must be random," which ignores the fact that evenness and randomness aren't the same. Just too many 0-fer or unbelievable streaks.

If I have a door prize and there are 10 winning tickets to give out to 100 guests, then 10% will win. I could give them all to my buddies, or put them all on the top of the stack and give them out to the first 10 people in the room... and 10% will still win. In neither case is it a "random" outcome.

Evenness and randomness dont lend to one another. Randomness can be completely one sided

Exactly my point. Although, I would say that if randomness gets TOO one sided, it becomes harder and harder to buy that it's actually random. If the same dude hit the powerball 3 times, you can bet that the excuse of "the system is indeed random and working correctly" probably wouldn't fly.

wirius · April 2016

For the devs, absolutely. The RNG for ultimate power inspires a passion and purchase from players that is almost rabid. For the players? Maybe you want something different. If you want something different propose to them an idea which will:

A. Make them more money
B. Keep people playing and having something to work for

Because the truth is, after 70 tokens opened without a 5*, you've still played and pursued them. Even if you quit within a few more LT's without 5* pulls, you're already in such a small sample size that the 1 in 2000 players who leave will more than make up for the hundreds who stay. Sorry you personally got the short end of the stick, but in RNG, someone always will.

evil panda · April 2016

0 for 70. If you have a spouse and/or children, they're lucky to have you. You have the patience of a saint

billsrule7 · April 2016

UPDATE: It is now 0 for 72....

Xeonic-Ice · April 2016

If it makes you feel any better, I'm on a current streak of 0 for 89 since I started counting.

My last 5* pull from a token/CP was back in December. My last two 5* pulls were from daily rewards at day 730 and day 820 and I'm coming up on the next one very soon. I'm currently on day 883.

Chrono_Tata · April 2016

DayvBang wrote:

carrion pigeons wrote:

HaywireII wrote:

We need the math guys to come in here now. If you are 0 for 70 what percentile does that put you in when it's a 10% pull rate. And what is the matching percentile at the other end of the spectrum? 35 out of 70? 55 out of 70? I'm curious if there's one person out there pulling mostly 5*'s from legendary tokens and not complaining at all.

That's not a tough math problem. .9^70=.000626579

Or in other words about 1 in 1600. Not so unlikely to have a handful of cases like that if the sample size is large enough.

EDIT: Actually read the rest of the question. The answer is a little under 22 5* covers. I suspect that's not so far outside of an intuitively normal success rate that someone not thinking about it very hard would even blink.

Huh. I would have thought that if the OP drew 0 out of 70 (7 less than average) instead of the statistically average 7 out of 70, that the statistically similar draw rate would have been 7 more than average, or 14 tokens. Of course, that doesn't account for the fact that 0 out of 70 is a hard limit, while there are decreasingly small chances of drawing far more than 14 out of 70.

It's around 16-17 covers. Here're the calculations.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... sp=sharing

The probability of getting 0 5-star covers is 0.06%, and on the "lucky" side of the graph, the probability of getting 17 covers is around 0.03% and the probability of getting 16 covers is around 0.08%, so the equivalent is somewhere in the middle of those 2 numbers.

But yeah, the likelihood is that there are probably people who have opened 16 or 17 5-star covers from 70 legendary token draws, but they are too busy enjoying their well-covered 5-stars to complain on the forum or think about the statistics.

Cartz · April 2016

You are going to hate this but I'm 4 out of 4 with legendary tokens for 5* and well above 10% overall after picking up my second

Phoenix today from champing deadpool.

I legitimately feel sorry for 5* transistioners who are having their experience destroyed by randomness.

Xenoberyll · April 2016

Xeonic-Ice wrote:

If it makes you feel any better, I'm on a current streak of 0 for 89 since I started counting.

My last 5* pull from a token/CP was back in December. My last two 5* pulls were from daily rewards at day 730 and day 820 and I'm coming up on the next one very soon. I'm currently on day 883.

your streak makes me wonder with every new pull if i should be happy with my 7% pull rate - but i'm not

(Now 0 for 73) - Devs, is the system working as you intend?

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